Dr. Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University has developed a statistical formula that he claims has picked the winner of the presidential popular vote going back 100 years, except for the JFK-Nixon matchup in 1960. He predicts that Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election in November. In the February/March time frame, well before both parties settled on their nominee, the... 

A political science professor who has accurately predicted the winners of previous presidential elections asserts that his statistical model shows Donald Trump has a 97-99% chance of taking the Oval Office if he wins the Republican nomination. Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth has created a statistical algorithm that uses a candidate’s performance in party primaries and patterns in...