Yevgeny Prigozhin and his faction allegedly harbor ambitions to oust Vladimir Putin from power, aiming to pave the way for Prigozhin’s own leadership bid in Moscow, according to insights from a Russia expert. Prigozhin, known for leading the Wagner Group, a private military entity assisting the Russian military in Ukraine, has not only contributed to operations in Bakhmut but has also, notably, challenged Moscow’s defense ministry since revealing his association with Wagner last year.
Experts speculate that Prigozhin may be strategically elevating his public profile, potentially positioning himself to seize power should Russia face defeat in Ukraine. This emerging dynamic places Putin in a precarious position, torn between the threat posed by Prigozhin and the indispensable support Moscow’s military still requires from Wagner forces.
Olga Lautman, a Russia expert, suggests that Prigozhin’s increasingly public persona and populist role have targeted Putin’s inner circle, creating a potential pathway for a power grab. Lautman underscores Putin’s dilemma, asserting that a direct confrontation with Prigozhin could deepen internal divisions, considering the Russian president’s reliance on both the Wagner mercenaries and the defense ministry.
Prigozhin has utilized public communications to criticize Russian military leaders, accusing them of “treason” for denying additional ammunition supplies to Wagner forces. His confrontational approach includes publicizing recruitment efforts among Russian prisoners, although he recently claimed Wagner would cease recruiting convicts, potentially indicating efforts by the Russian security services and defense ministry to restrain him.
Lautman believes that the FSB and defense ministry view Prigozhin as a destabilizing force, leading them to sabotage his initiatives, such as prohibiting the recruitment of prisoners. While Putin may currently find Prigozhin’s support indispensable, Lautman suggests that security services in Moscow might seek to eliminate Prigozhin at a later stage, particularly if the Russian military’s dependence on Wagner diminishes.
The delicate balance between Putin and Prigozhin remains tenuous, with the former unable to openly challenge the latter due to the ongoing military operations in Ukraine. The potential fallout from such a confrontation, coupled with Prigozhin’s loyal following, forces Putin to tread cautiously. As Russia grapples with losses and stagnant gains in the conflict, the uneasy alliance with Prigozhin underscores the complexities and potential future challenges within the Russian power structure.
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