Russia finds itself hurtling towards a potential internal conflict and a surge in nationalist uprisings, with forecasts of up to 30 to 40 new states emerging, according to a Bashkir independence leader. The repercussions of Vladimir Putin’s controversial decision to invade Ukraine have exacerbated separatist sentiments, particularly within Russia’s national republics, whose populations reflect a diverse mosaic of ethnicities and minorities due to the country’s imperial history.
The existing Russian state encompasses nearly 200 ethnic groups, many residing in the 22 national republics theoretically granted a degree of autonomy. However, these regions face Kremlin-appointed leaders tightly controlled by Moscow, implementing political agendas that often clash with local aspirations.
Resentment towards the Kremlin’s assimilation policies, aimed at eradicating local cultures and identities, has fueled a new wave of nationalist activism in the republics, pushing for complete independence. Ruslan Gabbasov, the 43-year-old leader of the Bashkir National Political Centre, exemplifies this trend.
Gabbasov’s organization declared a fight for a “Free Bashkortostan” in August, asserting the building of a Bashkir political nation. Bashkortostan, home to around four million Bashkirs, has become a focal point for nationalist aspirations.
Gabbasov believes that the war in Ukraine provides an opportune moment for realizing dreams of independence. Regardless of the conflict’s outcome, he argues that Putin’s regime is destined to crumble, and Moscow’s control over regions will wane. A no-win scenario awaits Putin, with a loss leading to regime collapse and victory resulting in economic suffocation, reconstruction costs, and persistent Western sanctions.
In anticipation of potential upheaval, Gabbasov and supporters are forming their own army, preparing for the aftermath of potential civil war and ethnic uprisings that could splinter Russia into numerous states. Gabbasov envisions a League of Free Nations, uniting nationalist leaders from various regions to coordinate actions and promote their independence agendas.
The Bashkir leader urges Western leaders to engage with nationalist movements, assist in managing the breakup of Russia, and foster the emergence of viable democratic states from the impending chaos. Gabbasov sees historical patterns repeating, predicting the eventual dissolution of Russia, emphasizing the importance of Western support for movements opposing Putin’s regime.
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