Russia is teetering on the brink of a potential civil war, exacerbated by deepening ethnic tensions and racial divisions following a series of mass shootings at a military base in Belgorod.
At least 11 soldiers lost their lives in the incident, sparked by a confrontation between a Russian commander and mobilized individuals from Muslim regions who contested their involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
The commander’s inflammatory remarks, calling it a “holy war” and insulting Allah, led to a violent clash between Muslim and non-Muslim servicemen, resulting in deadly gunfire.
The incident has ignited fury on Russian social media, laying bare the profound ethnic tensions and racial fault lines within the country.
A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel, Grey Zone, predicts that Russia is heading towards a “loud” civil war due to the escalating hostilities over Putin’s mobilization efforts.
The channel suggests that the replacement of the Russian population may lead to a civil war, with blame directed at “foreigners,” conveniently deflecting responsibility from those behind the population substitution.
Ethnic tensions have been further fueled by political figures, with Sergey Mironov, chairman of the political party A Just Russia, criticizing the Kremlin’s migration policy and insinuating that non-Russians are unfit for military service.
He called for a moratorium on granting Russian citizenship to Tajik nationals and demanded immigration reform, blaming military commissars for allowing individuals perceived as threats to Russian security into the army.
Russia, with its 193 ethnic groups, has actively encouraged migration from the former Soviet Union republics, but the mobilization plans during the war have disproportionately affected ethnic minorities.
Volunteer battalions formed in non-Russian ethnic minority communities have suffered substantial losses, and the deliberate targeting of minority communities for mobilization orders has deepened resentment and tensions.
The Institute for the Study of War reports this trend has continued, posing a significant challenge to Russia’s internal stability.
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