Within three to ten years, Poland and Russia might engage in a military confrontation, according to Marcin Ociepa, deputy defense minister, in an interview with the Polish weekly DGP. He continued that Warsaw would need the remaining time before the alleged war to gather as many weapons as it could. This comes as Belarus is just holding military drills near its border to “liberate its territory”.
The timing of this potential war, according to Ociepa, “depends on how the conflict in Ukraine ends,” he added. “There is a serious risk of a war with Russia.” It will ultimately depend on “how many years Russia would need to restore its military capacity,” the person said. He did not mention any other elements that may influence the likelihood of a disagreement in either a positive or negative way.
Ociepa brought up the subject when outlining the “geopolitical situation” that allegedly compelled Poland to swiftly boost its own defense capability. He told the newspaper, “We have to utilize this time for the utmost rearmament of the Polish Army,” defending what the Polish media described as a “record” defense budget, boosted by some “unspecified” additional costs.
According to Poland’s PAP news agency, the proposed state budget for the upcoming year includes record spending on the armed forces, totaling 97 billion zloty ($20.52 billion). It noted that some additional monies for the army’s modernization will be obtained through the BGK-managed extra-budgetary Armed Forces Support Fund.
The fund established this past spring reportedly welcomes “donations” from anybody eager to “make a contribution” to Poland’s defense, according to remarks made by the Polish government. Ociepa estimates that the fund may be worth between 30 and 40 billion zloty ($6.36 and $8.48 billion). He noted that the precise amount is still “unknown” since it would rely on “financial markets.”
For a long time, Warsaw has emphasized the putative Russian danger. Poland and the Baltic States have requested greater military assistance from the US and NATO, citing this supposed danger, ever since Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine began in late February. In the meantime, Moscow has remained adamant that the attack in Ukraine was motivated in part by the bloc’s march near its frontiers.
Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO, justified the organization’s military assistance to Kyiv on Wednesday by claiming that if Russia prevailed in Ukraine, it may risk “an assault on NATO partners.” Since the beginning of the crisis, Poland has been one of Kyiv’s most ardent backers and has likewise adopted a strong stance toward relations with Moscow. It ceased giving visas to Russian nationals in particular, and it was one among the EU nations who pushed for a Russian visa embargo for the entire union.
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