A new poll has revealed that Polish rightists are beginning to defect from the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) to Confederation, a new right-wing party that only entered parliament for the first time in October.
The poll, carried out by Kantar for Platforma Obywatelska, showed support for the Law and Justice party (PiS), Poland’s ruling national-conservative party, has dropped by nearly 8 percentage points. At the same time, Confederation, a party which only entered parliament for the first time in October, increased its share of the vote by 5.4 percentage points.
The figures have left many wondering whether Confederation is beginning to siphon off votes from PiS.
Poland, Kantar poll:
PiS-ECR: 36% (-7)
KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 29% (-2)
Lewica-S&D: 14% (+3)
KON-NI: 12% (+5)
PSL-EPP: 9% (+1)+/- vs. 15-20 November 2019
Fieldwork: 29-30 November 2019
Sample size: ≈ 1000
Polling average: https://t.co/WMMN58m6v6 pic.twitter.com/FoBOy2qXTD— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2019
Bartosz Rydliński, a political science professor at the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, argues that the fall in support for PiS is “rather the result of the mistakes of Jarosław Kaczyński’s formation itself, rather than the political effectiveness of the radical right,” RadioZet reports.
Robert Winnicki, one of the leaders of Confederation, in the past has accused PiS of being too soft on cultural issues like LGBT rights, and “capitulating… to the rainbow, leftist revolution.”
According to Ryszard Luczyn, from Polityka Insight, PiS faces a serious electoral dilemma as its being squeezed from the right and the left, by Confederation and Polish People’s Party (PSL), respectively.
Luczyn contends that if PiS tries to counter Confederation by moving to the right, it risks losing voters to the moderate Polish People’s Party (PSL).
“Duda will have to fight off Konfederacja on the right, and at the same time it will make him less credible as a centrist, and there is already competition in the center,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, the head of the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank.
“It will not be easy for Duda to fight on all these fronts.”
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