The opposition leader Viktor F. Yanukovich appeared on Monday to have won a narrow victory in Ukraine’s presidential election, according to nearly complete results, giving him an unlikely comeback from his humiliating defeat in the 2004 Orange Revolution, when he was shunned as a bumbling Kremlin sidekick.
With 99.4 percent of the ballots counted from Sunday’s runoff election, Mr. Yanukovich had 48.8 percent of the vote, to 45.6 percent for his Orange opponent, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko.
European election monitors on Monday praised the conduct of the election, calling it “an impressive display” of democracy.
Ms. Tymoshenko, who has a reputation as a fierce political combatant, refused to concede and indicated that she would contest the election. But she was uncharacteristically silent on Monday, canceling two news conferences. Given the size of Mr. Yanukovich’s win and the report from the European monitors, it may be difficult for her to fight on.
Mr. Yanukovich, in comments late Sunday at his campaign headquarters here in the capital, urged Ms. Tymoshenko to acknowledge her loss and resign as prime minister.
“I will do everything to ensure that the citizens of Ukraine, no matter where in the country they live, feel comfortable and calm in a stable country,” Mr. Yanukovich said.
If the final count is certified, it will amount to a rebuke of the Orange Revolution, which was supposed to serve as a post-Soviet model, moving the country toward a European-style democracy, but has instead given rise to political and economic turmoil.
A victory for Mr. Yanukovich would also be a triumph for Moscow in its struggle for influence with the West in the former Soviet Union. While Mr. Yanukovich, with the assistance of an American political consultant, has tried to remake his image so that he is not considered a favorite of Russia, he advocates policies that it welcomes. The Kremlin has been infuriated by Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, saying that the West is infringing upon Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence, and Mr. Yanukovich is vowing to abandon the plan.
Under the incumbent president, Viktor A. Yushchenko, an Orange leader and resolute Kremlin foe, relations with neighboring Russia grew so tense that the Kremlin withdrew its ambassador to Ukraine. Mr. Yushchenko lost his bid for another term in the first round of voting last month, his popularity hurt by the country’s hard times.
Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko were once allies, but they are now so estranged that he refused to endorse her in the runoff and instead urged Ukrainians to vote “against all” on the ballot, a legal option. The president’s attacks on her may have been a factor in Mr. Yanukovich’s apparent success.
According to the results, “against all” received 4.4 percent, more than Mr. Yanukovich’s margin of victory.
With Ukraine’s economy suffering and its Orange government paralyzed by squabbling, many people seemed to vote on Sunday with little of the enthusiasm that they showed five years ago. Both Mr. Yanukovich, a former prime minister, and Ms. Tymoshenko are familiar figures who during the campaign rehashed well-worn themes.
Mr. Yanukovich said Ms. Tymoshenko was untrustworthy and was responsible for Ukraine’s troubles because of her erratic management. Ms. Tymoshenko said Mr. Yanukovich was a buffoon who would be controlled by Ukrainian oligarchs and the Kremlin. Her supporters noted that he had a criminal conviction for robbery as a youth.
The question now is what Ms. Tymoshenko will do next. She had contended last week that Mr. Yanukovich’s campaign intended to steal the election, saying that she would call for mass protests in response, in a repeat of the Orange Revolution.
“It is too early to draw conclusions,” Ms. Tymoshenko said at a news conference after the polls closed. “Everything will depend on how our team defends the results. I ask everyone to fight for every result, every document, every vote, because a vote can decide our fate.”
The first round of voting last month occurred without major violations, international election monitors said, and the report they released Monday might make it difficult for Ms. Tymoshenko to rally her supporters. Analysts said Ukrainians were so disillusioned that it was doubtful that there would be demonstrations like those in 2004.
If she loses the presidency, Ms. Tymoshenko will remain prime minister, and she has the ability to disrupt Mr. Yanukovich’s agenda until he puts together a coalition in Parliament to dismiss her. He could also call for new parliamentary elections.
The results on Sunday appeared to reflect the geographic divide in Ukraine, with Ukrainian speakers in the west backing Ms. Tymoshenko and Russian speakers in the east going for Mr. Yanukovich.
In interviews in Kiev, which is in the center of the country, many voters said Sunday that they were disappointed in the Orange Revolution because its leaders had not bolstered the economy, reduced corruption or improved social services.
Still, in interviews at a polling place at School No. 100, some said they continued to back Ms. Tymoshenko. Mikhail Bondarenko, 39, a gas industry executive, said he feared that Mr. Yanukovich would hinder Ukraine’s development.
“Yulia will have more progressive politics,” Mr. Bondarenko said. “For me personally, Yanukovich personifies the Soviet times, the so-called Red factory boss.”
Another business executive, Tatyana Zavgorodnaya, 40, agreed.
“Yanukovich is a step backward — a year back, 5 years back, 10 years back,” she said. “Better to stand in place than to take such a step backward.”
Others said they were fed up with Ms. Tymoshenko.
“She has disgraced herself with her dirty politics,” said Sergei Sizov, 70.
Irina Chetvertnova and her husband, Ivan, both doctors, said they backed Ms. Tymoshenko during the Orange Revolution but could no longer do so.
“She is that psychological type of person who wants to fight and not do anything else,” said Ms. Chetvertnova, 45. “A government should work and not just seek out enemies.”
Mr. Chetvertnova said: “She talks a lot and does nothing. And then blames everyone else. And they have had their five years.”
The Orange Revolution broke out after Mr. Yanukovich won the presidential election in late 2004. His victory was overturned in the courts when demonstrators accused his campaign of vote fraud, and in the replay election, Mr. Yushchenko triumphed.
The events reflected a schism in Ukraine. On one side were those who aligned themselves with the West and hoped to create a European-style government, rejecting the authoritarian model in many post-Soviet countries. The other side had more loyalty toward Moscow.
In this current campaign, though, both Mr. Yanukovich and Ms. Tymoshenko tried to soften their stances.
Mr. Yanukovich stressed his independence from Russia, calling for Ukraine’s integration with Europe. And Ms. Tymoshenko, who used to attack the Kremlin regularly, now says she will pursue warmer ties with Russia.
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it’s time to come to normality. enough with all these “coloured shits”.