A groundbreaking study conducted by the University of Oxford has definitively established the correlation between age and higher death rates from COVID-19. The research, comparing mortality rates in Italy and South Korea, two nations with early outbreaks of the virus, revealed that the death rate in Italy was 1.7 times greater than in South Korea, emphasizing the crucial role of age demographics in determining fatality rates.
Lead author Jennifer Dowd highlighted the potential use of this information to forecast the trajectory of COVID-19 in different countries as the virus continues to spread. The study underscored that the risk of COVID-19 mortality is significantly concentrated among older age groups, especially those aged over 80. Recognizing the demographic makeup of a country allows for predictions about the burden of critical cases, aiding in the planning of hospital resources.
The study, prompted by the severity of COVID-19 in Italy compared to South Korea, examined death rates and population age in Italy, the United States, and Nigeria. Italy’s higher mortality rate was attributed to its older population, with 23.3% aged over 65 compared to South Korea’s 14%. The research team developed a new demographic science forecasting approach, considering not only age demographics but also intergenerational interactions, which play a pivotal role in the virus’s spread.
The study’s simulation, projecting population age structure’s impact on COVID-19 fatalities in Brazil and Nigeria, demonstrated that Brazil, with a higher percentage of people over 80, could potentially experience more than three times the deaths compared to Nigeria. The researchers emphasize the importance of considering population density and health system capacity alongside age demographics to comprehend the virus’s overall impact.
The findings suggest that, apart from medical capacity, a younger age structure provides a degree of protection to a population. Countries with older populations may need to implement more stringent protective measures, potentially involving stricter lockdown measures, especially for older individuals. The study’s demographic science forecasting approach could serve as a valuable tool for governments and policymakers, offering insights into potential COVID-19 trajectories and guiding effective strategies. The study has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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