Renowned billionaire investor and stakeholder Ray Dalio has issued a grim warning, claiming that the US and China are “beyond the ability to talk” and are now on the brink of war. He warns that both sides are at severe risk of crossing each other’s red lines, and the rest of the world may be dragged down with them. According to Business Insider, Dalio wrote a memo on LinkedIn in which he explains that he fears the conflict will escalate over several immediate flashpoints, such as quarrels over Taiwan, confrontations between American and Chinese aircraft and ships, the war in Ukraine, and threats of economic sanctions.
Dalio, who runs the largest foreign hedge fund in China and has 40 years of experience investing in the country, shared his thoughts after recently meeting with policymakers, Chinese citizens, and China experts from around the world. He explained that Washington and Beijing are showing an inability to talk about these issues, and discussions about significant topics have turned into exchanges of accusations that worsen relations instead of help them.
Dalio wrote that while both countries should know they need to deconflict, there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is towards war. He also noted that the hawkish political influences in the US will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season, which will be a very risky period. The US and China are now already on the brink of war, he added.
Dalio pointed out that French President Emmanuel Macron has criticized Washington for provoking China, and Saudi Arabia has recently engaged in new deals with China and Russia, which typically have been allies of the US. The US and China are now “like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight,” he wrote.
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