The Pandora’s box of the SEC’s action against Goldman, which if validated in court will effectively make the issuance of every hybrid CDO product quasi-illegal, will lead to an explosion of lawsuits against virtually any bank that was active in the structured finance space during the housing boom, adding to a fresh round of “non-recurring” charges to bank income statements. Case in point – Welt am Sonntag reports that the German government is considering suing Goldman Sachs, and has asked the SEC for information in its fraud case against the firm. According to the WSJ a spokesman for Angel Merkel said earlier: “First we must ask for the documents, then evaluate [them] and then decide about legal steps.” The action stems from the SEC’s disclosure the German IKB may have been illegally “taken advantage of” through Abacus, and probably other CDO transactions, leading to losses of $150 million. In 2007 IKB had to be bailed out by the German government, in what some claim was the preamble to banking crisis that is now enveloping Europe (not sure if the sovereign catastrophe facing the EMU can also be blamed on Goldman’s CDO transactions, although Goldman will surely also be sued for that sooner or later). We have seen how eager Europe has been to scapegoat “speculators” and other Wall Street actors. We are positive that Germany will surely pursue action against Goldman as it will now provide a vent to pent up popular hatred of how the government has handled the crisis. At the end of the day, even if the SEC’s overture is nothing but a pr stunt cleverly orchestrated by Emmanuel Rahm, the unexpected fallout may well be where the real action is.
From the WSJ:
Germany’s interest in the case stems from the fact that German lender IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG bought a significant amount of the collateralized debt obligations in question, contributing to IKB’s heavy losses on U.S. mortgage-related securities. Those losses led to a €3.5 billion ($4.73 billion) bailout of IKB in mid-2007, with most of the money coming from IKB’s major shareholder, German state bank KfW.
IKB’s near-failure marked the start of an escalating banking crisis in Germany in 2007, which found that numerous state and private-sector banks in Europe’s biggest economy had invested and lost heavily in U.S. mortgage-related securities. The losses undermined German officials’ claims that the subprime-mortgage crisis was a U.S. problem, and forced Germany to announce a €500 billion bailout of its banking sector in October 2008.
And with everyone focusing on Goldman, somehow everyone forgot that Greece is ever faster sinking into the sea of ever rising debt spreads: the real first domino to the endspiel is about to topple.
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