Kyrgyzstan’s President Kurmanbek Bakiyev ordered a state of emergency in Bishkek and three other areas on Wednesday amid clashes between riot police and anti-government demonstrators that reportedly left at least 17 protesters dead.
The impoverished mostly Muslim nation in ex-Soviet Central Asia has been gripped by political unrest for weeks.
Here are some analysts’ comments about the turbulence:
LILIT GEVORGYAN, POLITICAL ANALYST, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
“The political violence is likely to continue in Kyrgyzstan. With most of the opposition leaders arrested, the crowds of protesters are effectively left without a leadership that could launch talks with the government and avert a further escalation of the instability.”
“The state of emergency requires citizens not to assemble in public places, but the demonstrators are not likely to abide by these rules. Angered with the deaths of fellow protesters they may instigate new violence. ”
“(Kurmanbek) Bakiyev’s presidency is weakening as the political developments continue. Given the incumbent’s resolve in recent years to concentrate power in his hands only, it is difficult to see how a political compromise may be found.”
CHRISTOPHER GRANVILLE, TRUSTED SOURCES RESEARCH, LONDON
“There were attempts by both the former president and his successor, the current president Bakiyev, to entrench a very stable regime with a dynastic flavour, as we’ve seen in Kazakhstan.
“But this has not proved possible in Kyrgyzstan,despite vigorous efforts by Bakiyev. The country still has an inherent vulnerability which in an environment of economic dislocation can easily be sparked off into a new cycle of violence.
“The drop in remittances is a very important part of the explanation for the latest civic violence.”
CHRIS WEAFER, CHIEF STRATEGIST, URALSIB BANK, MOSCOW:
“There’s a great deal of external political interference in the country, which is not translating into investment flows. China, its neighbour to the east, is keen to create a buffer beside its restive province of Xinjiang, where Beijing is keen to block Islamic militancy coming in from Afghanistan.
“Russia and the United States have also been competing for influence for a long time and have air bases just a few miles apart, so it is an active centre of the Great Game right now between the powers of Russia, China, and U.S.”
“I think the trigger for the unrest appears to be the fallout from Russia’s economic problems because about 45 percent of GDP comes from remittances from earnings in Russia and, given the difficulties for migrant workers to get jobs, that source of revenue fell by 30 percent last year.
“Political relations with Moscow were never as bad as they are today. Moscow is frustrated that Bishkek is trying to play all sides and therefore annoying all sides.
“Kyrgyzstan’s president said he would not renew the lease of the Manas air base and in turn he secured aid pledges from Moscow. Then he did an about turn and renewed the lease at a higher rent.”
ALEXEI MUKHIN, DIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR POLITICAL INFORMATION, MOSCOW:
Mukhin believes Kyrgyz events were sparked by forces from outside the country.
“It is an attempt at a coup. The U.S. base in the country is a key factor and its fate will indicate who is behind today’s events. If it is Moscow then the base will disappear, if it is Washington the base will remain in place,” he said.
ALEXEI VLASOV, DIRECTOR MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY’S CENTER OF POLITICAL PROCESSES IN THE POST-SOVIET REGION:
“What is happening in Kyrgyzstan is a crisis of authority, without a doubt, but that does not mean that a repeat of the Tulip revolution of 2005 is possible because (President) Kurmanbek Bakiyev unlike (former President) Askar Akayev has more solidarity within his circle because he has relatives in key posts.”
“Bakiyev is highly dependant on outside support from China, Russia and the United States. If Moscow and Washington are silent I think Bakiyev will hold onto power.”
“Kyrgyzstan was long called the most democratic country in the post-Soviet space, in the 1990s. Now, I think it is a classic example of what the United States would call a ‘failed state’ – that is a failed state with deep internal economic and political problems.” REINHARD KRUMM, DIRECTOR FRIEDRICH-EBERT FOUNDATION THINK-TANK, MOSCOW
“After the Tulip revolution in 2005, the hope was that after (former President Askar) Akayev, (President) Kurmanbek Bakiyev would be a different kind of leader and that didn’t work out.”
“The problem is you have different clans in different areas, for example in Talas and Bishkek. They are all unhappy because Bakiyev, who comes from the south, wants to bring his son to power.”
“One of the other reasons that Akayev was toppled was exactly the same, because he tried to get his children into parliament with great falsification during elections.”
“Bakiyev, it seems to me, is very serious about doing the same thing. The other clans, know that if this takes place they have no chance to have an influence on government.”
“The one valuable thing they have is water, but the problem with water is that Kyrgyzstan is happy to send Uzbekistan water but only when they do not need it.”
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